America's Roundtable - Episodes Tagged with “Stagflation”

A Conversation with Economist Steve Hanke | Is America Headed for a Whopping Recession in 2023? | Russia: Reviewing the Effectiveness of US and EU Sanctions on Moscow — Are Sanctions Really Hurting the Russian Economy?

Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy — Sun, 11 Sep 2022 08:00:00 -0400

Join America's Roundtable Radio co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy in a recent conversation with Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Steve Hanke is a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics.

The conversation with Professor Hanke will provide listeners with an update on the U.S. economy and the impact of inflation and how government policies affect families and the private sector, specifically small and medium size businesses.

Will the Fed's interest rate hikes lead to a soft-landing or a major recession in 2023?

On America's Roundtable Radio, Professor Hanke will highlight his economic predictions for 2023. His predictions for 2022 on the inflation rate was right on target, a warning he and his colleague John Greenwood relayed through a commentary in The Wall Street Journal a year ago titled "Too Much Money Portends High Inflation — The Fed should pay attention to Milton Friedman’s wisdom."

How Effective are Sanctions on Russia?

The discussion will also examine U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed on Russia. This past week we found out that with energy prices up, Moscow is reaping significant financial gains through the sale of oil and gas. A recent Wall Street Journal report stated that through July 2022, Moscow has totaled $97 billion from oil and gas sales, earning $5.4 billion more per month than last year's monthly average. Russia is actually pumping almost as much oil into the global market as it did before prior to the conflict with Ukraine.

US Assistance to Ukraine Rises to $60 Billion — While the European Union's Contribution Amounts to $10 Billion Only

The Biden Administration along with Democrat and Republican members of Congress have authorized over $60 billion in US taxpayer funds to support Ukraine's military and provide assistance to Europe's NATO members. However, the EU comprised of 27 member states in Europe has only provided 10 billion euros (USD$10 billion) since the beginning of the war.

As a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, currency and commodity trading, Dr. Hanke will relay his thoughts on the US and Euro currencies and the currency board that he developed for a number of countries around the world.

His recent commentary in The Wall Street Journal titled "Floating Exchange Rates Add to Economic Uncertainty” raised important points. The discussion with Professor Hanke on Saturday morning will focus on the perils of instability which brings problems for the U.S. and Europe—and serious crises to developing nations.

Importantly, the conversation will highlight the significance of advancing principled pro-growth policies for America.

Recent statements by Professor Steve Hanke:

“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it."

"The bottom line is we’re going to have stagflation — we’re going to have the inflation because of this excess that’s now coming into the system.”

“The problem we have is that the [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] does not understand, even at this point, what the causes of inflation are and were. He’s still going on about supply-side glitches. He has failed to tell us that inflation is always caused by excess growth in the money supply, turning the printing presses on.”

Bio | Steve H. Hanke

Steve Hanke is a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics.

A professor of environmental health and engineering, Hanke is co-founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, an interdivisional Institute between the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences and the Whiting School of Engineering. The institute’s extensive research and publishing focus on applied economics and finance, business history, and public health.

Recognized globally for his expertise, Hanke advises a number of public and private institutions. He is a senior advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing and special counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York. A member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel, he also served on the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77 and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88.

As a senior economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, he led a team of economists in re-writing the federal government’s Principles and Guidelines for Water and Land Related Resources Implementation Studies. In addition, he was responsible for designing Reagan’s major privatization initiatives. A faculty member of the JHU Global Water Institute, Hanke remains a sought-after expert on municipal water system privatization.

His international appointments also include state counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He advised the presidents of Bulgaria (1997-2002), Venezuela (1995-96), and Indonesia (1998). He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia.

A well-known currency and commodity trader, Hanke is chairman of the Supervisory Board of Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. in Amsterdam and chairman emeritus of the Friedberg Mercantile Group, Inc. in Toronto. During the 1990s, he served as president of Toronto Trust Argentina in Buenos Aires, the world’s best-performing emerging market mutual fund in 1995.

Hanke serves as a contributing editor at Central Banking, The International Economy, and The Independent Review. Hanke also serves on the editorial boards of numerous scholarly journals.

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America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit.

America’s Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America’s economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world.

America’s Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan’s major market, SuperTalk Mississippi Media’s 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

Dr. Steve Hanke | U.S. Inflation at 40-year High | Energy Independence | Failure of Sanctions — Russia

Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy — Sat, 02 Jul 2022 06:00:00 -0400

Join America's Roundtable co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy for a conversation with Dr. Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Prof. Hanke served as senior economist on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and as senior adviser to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.

The discussion will highlight the reasons that Americans are facing skyrocketing inflation and high gas prices. On America's Roundtable, Professor Hanke will share why he believes that there is a 70 percent chance of a recession impacting America — and stagflation as a real possibility.

"According to what the Fed released on Tuesday, the US money supply (M2) has slowed dramatically in the past two months. If this plunge continues, a recession will begin late in 2022 or early 2023. The Fed is clearly doing what they’ve been doing for some time: flying blind." — Professor Steve Hanke

The conversation will also delve into America and the West's failure to change Russia's behavior as Putin and his generals wage war on the European continent. Professor Hanke, a strong critic regarding the effectiveness of imposing sanctions will share empirical observations and history's lessons regarding this failed effort being pushed by politicians.

CNBC report "Russia’s ruble hit its strongest level in 7 years despite massive sanctions. Here’s why" —

"The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas and the second-largest exporter of oil. Its primary customer? The European Union, which has been buying billions of dollars worth of Russian energy per week while simultaneously trying to punish it with sanctions."

WSJ: Cancel Milton Friedman, and Inflation Is What You Get — By Steve H. Hanke and John Greenwood | June 5, 2022
The word ‘money’ doesn’t even appear in President Biden’s plan to whip inflation.

The lead paragraph of President Biden’s op-ed “My Plan for Fighting Inflation” (May 31) asserts that the global economy faces an inflation problem exacerbated by Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, high oil prices and supply-chain problems. This line of argument shows why the president’s team and the experts at the Federal Reserve were unable to anticipate the inflation conundrum that their economic missteps have forced us into. It also shows why the president’s plan will likely fail to allow us to exit inflation with a smooth landing.

We don’t have a global inflation problem. Inflations are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon spawned by the creation of excess money by local central banks. China, Japan and Switzerland also face elevated oil prices, supply-chain problems and fallout from the war in Ukraine, but their annual inflation rates are 2.1%, 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively. They have avoided the ravages of inflation because their central banks haven’t produced excessive quantities of money.

Adherence to the tenets of monetarism is nowhere to be found in the Biden White House or the Fed. Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed that we had to “unlearn” monetarism. It looks like Mr. Biden was an attentive student. The word “money” doesn’t even appear in his plan to whip inflation. As he said in 2020, “Milton Friedman isn’t running the show anymore.” As long as Friedman and monetarism remain canceled, the White House and the Fed will be grasping for straws.

Prof. Steve Hanke and John Greenwood
Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore and London